Analyzing the cost of a tenancy workout for the credit crisis.

September 25, 2008 at 5:35 am | Posted in credit, Housing, regulations | 3 Comments
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Maybe we can have an agency or a fund that buys off foreclosed properties from banks, and allows the erstwhile owner to continue to occupy the place as a tenant (I’ve written about this here) . This would take the toxic mortgage off the bank’s balance sheet, and, by buying the mortgage at face value, or at a slight discount to face value, it would basically rescue the bank’s capital by overpaying for the debt. This, in turn, may support the mortgage market and the derivatives on these mortgages.

Knowing that the bad mortgages – those approaching foreclosure- can be sold at near-par (I suggest a 3-5% discount) would support prices of all mortgages.

In the meantime, the agency could convert the foreclosure process into a tenancy process – Ownership transfers to the agency, the previous owner now pays rent (at a rate somewhat lower than the mortgage payment, but one which covers the capital cost of the money the agency used to acquire the place), and, if s/he makes the rent payment regularly for a certain period of time (say two years – after all, plenty of renters lock themselves into a two year lease), they can then exit without a foreclosure on their credit record.

How much will this cost?

Lets try some round numbers to estimate this.

Two-thirds of about 110 million households own their homes, while the historical rate has been about 64%. The difference is about 3 million households, or about 4% of current homeowners. While the cycle could take homeownership even lower, I think rescuing homeowners would support the market to the point that perhaps prices and, more importantly, home ownership does not dip too far below this level.

The median home price in August 2008 was $203100, down from $224,400 in August 2007. However, we can assume that the median foreclosure may be above this amount for a couple of reasons – 1. Foreclosures are more likely in higher priced areas, and urban / suburban areas, and 2. The slowdown is worse in higher priced areas such as Southern California. Foreclosures started off in below-median-income households, but I think they are moving up the income ladder.

So lets assume the average mortgage on a foreclosed home is $300,000. This translates into about $850 billion in capital to purchase these foreclosed homes, at a 5% discount. Putting this money to work may help support pricing and keep other homeowners in their homes despite a decline in house prices.

I have previously estimated that the fall in home values could leave aggregate mortgage debt about $1.8 trillion above home values, so a real estate (RE) fund that buys up to $850 billion in property and converts them into rentals could make a serious dent in the problem. I wouldn’t worry too much about the derivatives market if we can bring some stability to the underlying real estate market – the derivative losses may be limited somewhat by the underlying stabilization, and anyway, I would rather use taxpayer money to support both Wall Street and Main Street, not just Wall Street.

Assuming a 4% cost of capital for the RE fund, and a $4000 median property tax, the median rental on these properties would be ~$1350 per month. We would have some people falling behind on the rent as well, so there would be losses on that as well, but I’m guessing that by stabilizing the market, and by charging rent that is probably considerably below what the tenant was previously paying in monthly installments, we might make it easier for the tenant to make these reduced payments.

So this fund would need $850B in capital, hopefully be able to largely produce returns that meet its cost of capital, and have assets that would eventually be sold to recover a fair amount of the principal, with a holding period of 2-5 years. Administratively, this would be a tough challenge to manage, but one could contract with property management agents to take care of some of these issues.

The ultimate cost to the tax payer may be a relatively small portion of the real estate fund. If we assume that about 20% of tenants fall behind on their payments (a conservatively high figure) during the two-year lease period (at a median of 1 year into the lease), that is just a $10 billion shortfall in lease collections. Lets say these 20% of properties are then sold (instead of being rented out to someone else) at a 20% loss. That is a 4% loss to the fund = $35 billion. Finally, assume the rest of the properties are eventually sold at a 10% loss. That would be $70 billion.

By my estimates, the total cost of a tenancy workout would be $115 billion, spread over several years. This is assuming the taxpayer-funded RE fund would actually purchase 3 million homes. But why not bring in private players who would get government backstop funding, based on these assumptions? Let them buy the properties at a 4% cost of capital, manage the process and the landlord -tenant relationship, and participate in the gain / loss relative to these back of the envelope calculations?

I would love to see a plan built around some such framework, and I would support the use of taxpayer money for this purpose.

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3 Comments »

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  1. Hello.

    I would like to put a link to your site on my blog roll if you want to do the same for mine. It would be a good way to build up both of our readerships.

    thank you.

  2. I recently came accross your blog and have been reading along. I thought I would leave my first comment. I dont know what to say except that I have enjoyed reading. Nice blog.

    Tim Ramsey

  3. […] – both those in trouble and those who might benefit from a price / inventory stabilization – here, something certainly needs to be […]


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